Paul Biya’s 2025 Presidential Campaign

This article analyzes the 2025 presidential campaign strategy of His Excellency Paul Biya, focusing on the CPDM’s deliberate use of elite endorsements, identity-based political outreach, and grassroots mobilization. Drawing on political science theories including Resource Mobilization Theory, Social Identity Theory, and Cleavage Theory, the paper evaluates how the CPDM’s engagement with Catholic bishops, Muslim leaders, traditional chiefs, municipal mayors, and other elite actors positions the incumbent advantageously against a fragmented opposition. Comparative insights from Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign illustrate the relevance of ground game strategy in both advanced and developing political systems.

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I. Introduction: The Strategic Timing

With only eight weeks remaining before Cameroon’s presidential election scheduled for October 12, 2025, the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) has shifted into an advanced phase of electoral strategy. Rather than over-relying on rallies or reactionary statements, the CPDM has executed a highly targeted Community Engagement Model that integrates governance continuity with strategic elite endorsements.

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II. Elite Endorsements as Electoral Catalysts

The past week has produced an unprecedented alignment of key socio-political institutions in favor of President Biya:

1. Catholic Church Leadership – On August 8, 2025, the Catholic Bishops of Cameroon reaffirmed their support for President Biya, citing his moral leadership and peacebuilding role. In Social Capital Theory terms, this endorsement mobilizes one of the most organized and credible networks in Cameroon’s public life.

2. Muslim Religious Leaders – On August 11, 2025, nearly thirty Imams from all ten regions met at the Unity Palace, pledging unified support for the President’s re-election. This development resonates strongly with Muslim constituencies across the northern and urban southern regions.

3. Traditional Chiefs of the Western Region – On August 12, 2025, the chiefs reaffirmed their “historic pact” with Biya, promising massive voter mobilization in a region that is the ethnic base of leading opposition figure Maurice Kamto.

4. National Mayoral Meeting at the Unity Palace – Bringing together all Mayors of Cameroon’s city councils, President Biya reinforced his message of national unity, decentralization, and municipal development. Politically, this meeting is significant because mayors operate as territorial opinion leaders whose endorsement can directly influence local voter turnout and align municipal governance messaging with the presidential campaign.

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III. Erosion of Opposition Strongholds

The ethno-religious backgrounds of prominent opposition figures make these endorsements particularly impactful:

• Maurice Kamto’s Western Region base is symbolically weakened by the chiefs’ public alignment with Biya.

• Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Bello Bouba Maigari’s influence in northern Muslim constituencies is undercut by the Imams’ endorsement.

• Catholic Church support neutralizes the opposition’s moral framing advantage in predominantly Christian regions.

From the perspective of Cleavage Theory (Lipset & Rokkan, 1967), these moves have disrupted traditional ethno-religious voting patterns, eroding the opposition’s capacity to consolidate support along identity lines.

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IV. Comparative Analysis: Lessons from Obama’s 2008 Ground Game

President Biya’s strategy mirrors key features of Barack Obama’s 2008 U.S. presidential campaign, as described in The Audacity of Hope and subsequent political science analyses. Obama’s campaign emphasized relational organizing, mobilizing trusted community figures to personally engage voters. In Cameroon’s context, replacing neighborhood volunteers with religious leaders, traditional chiefs, and municipal mayors extends the concept into a high-authority model, enhancing both message credibility and voter persuasion.

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V. Advisory: Converting Endorsements into Votes

Elite endorsements, while powerful, must be operationalized through structured grassroots mobilization. The CPDM should:

1. Deploy region-wide campaign structures with clear mandates and accountability.

2. Activate the Diaspora front with competent, credible, and mobilization-ready representatives.

3. Integrate digital warfare capabilities to dominate social media and counter misinformation.

4. Embed endorsements into local campaign calendars for sustained engagement.

5. Monitor and evaluate grassroots operations to adapt strategies quickly where voter persuasion metrics lag.

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VI. Conclusion

The CPDM’s campaign demonstrates a sophisticated integration of elite coalition-building and identity-crossing endorsements, creating a nationwide electoral network. In contrast, the opposition’s fragmented coalition efforts are weakened by the erosion of their primary support bases. With systematic grassroots execution, these endorsements could translate into a decisive electoral victory. His Excellency Paul Biya is serene, prepared, and strategically two steps ahead.

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References

• Lipset, S. M., & Rokkan, S. (1967). Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.

• Obama, B. (2006). The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream. New York: Crown Publishers.

• Tarrow, S. (1998). Power in Movement: Social Movements and Contentious Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

• Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster.

• Norris, P. (2004). Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.